The Bad, The Ugly and the Really Scary

I attended a Gwynne Dyer lecture tonight at Wilfrid Laurier University. I find him to be a fascinating orator. I’m sure he’s also quite a lightning rod – as is anyone that spends a great deal of time conveying his/her opinions, regardless of the foundation and/or research behind them – and thus many of you will either strongly like or dislike Mr. Dyer. Regardless, one must agree that he is thought provoking.

The real point is, I was once again reminded of how little we really know about what’s happening in the world. I believe this is particularly true in North America. The citizenry, and to a perhaps larger extent the media, seem to have this mistaken belief that news from offshore is not terribly relevant to our day to day lives. Dyer noted the full two pages dedicated daily within the Globe and Mail to “international” news. I recall catching a CNN broadcast whilst readying for a day in a hotel room somewhere in the US several years ago, when they announced their “international minute” segment would be up next.

Dyer divided his time amongst three topics: things that don’t worry him much at all, things that worry him a great deal, and things that frankly scare him half to death.

In the not-very-worrisome category were the Middle East conflicts, Iraq, Afghanistan, terrorism, etc. It’s not that he doesn’t feel for the personal tragedies that are unfolding. He simply feels that these issues will have very little effect on global affairs and the lives of average citizens throughout the world.

He worries about the potential for a USA-China cold war. He paints a picture whereby all of the necessary elements are in place. Just as the end of the 19th century witnessed the end of the dominant British Empire, so to the end of the 20th century witnesses the decline of America as the sole super power. China’s GDP is growing by some 10% annually. India’s in the 8-9% range. Dyer sees a world of three economic and military super powers within 50 years. He also believes the US is actively developing economic and military ties with countries all around China, in an effort to lock it in. He doubts China will initiate a back and forth cold war spiral, but also suggests they are certainly being provoked.

And what truly frightens Mr. Dyer. Climate change. Period. And I believe he’s right. If we don’t get this one right, nothing else really matters does it. And it’s not about electric cars, or SMART cars, or strain on air conditioners. The issue is food supply. If the average annual temperature increases by two degrees C, some studies suggest that India’s food production will drop by 25%. That would leave 250 million people without food. And that's but one example. It’s time to do something.

I realized this evening that I don’t listen to such speakers often enough. And when I do, I often listen to speakers that believe what I believe. It would likely be better to engage with advocates of differing opinions.