Tiger is Back

Trivia: “Two players share the record for going the most years – 17 – with at least one victory. Who are they? A) Byron Nelson and Sam Snead B) Byron Nelson and Ben Hogan C) Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer D) Jack Nicklaus and Sam Snead” Answer below.

Here’s Lorne Rubenstein’s article on the next coming of Tiger Woods. It makes for interesting reading. You can find it here, in the Globe and Mail, and also included below.


Would you bet against this man?

LORNE RUBENSTEIN
From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
March 31, 2009 at 10:01 PM EDT

PASADENA, Calif. — The big sporting event in these parts is Saturday's 72nd Santa Anita Derby, for which Pioneerof the Nile and The Pamplemousse are the favourites in one of the major stepping stones to the Kentucky Derby.

At least people know there's more than one horse in the race. Folks here and elsewhere who are contemplating next week's Masters have already handed the green jacket to Tiger Woods, golf's ace thoroughbred.

Woods is the overwhelming favourite to win his fifth Masters title. Various wagering establishments have made him the 2-to-1 favourite, ridiculously low odds for anybody, even Woods, to win any tournament, even the Masters. Padraig Harrington won last year's PGA Championship and British Open, the most recent majors, and he's 14 to 1.

Then there's Phil Mickelson at 10 to 1. He's won two Masters and a PGA Championship, and the recent CA Championship in Miami. Mickelson has won 36 PGA Tour events, including his three majors.

That's a Hall of Fame career. But Woods, who won his 66th PGA Tour event (including 14 majors) last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in Orlando, has cast a total eclipse across Mickelson's accomplishments.
Woods has eclipsed most everybody, although he still has a ways to go before reaching Jack Nicklaus's record of 18 majors. Nicklaus won 73 PGA Tour events, including the majors, while Sam Snead has won a record 82 PGA Tour events, including seven majors.

Woods should pass Nicklaus in majors and total wins, and also Snead's record if he remains motivated. But does this mean he's a lock for the Masters? Is he golf's Secretariat, the powerful Big Red who won 16 of his 21 races and was all but sure to run down his opposition down the stretch?

No.

Woods shouldn't be a 2-to-1 favourite to win the Masters. It's the difference again between being the golfer "most likely" to win a particular tournament and "likely" to win the specific event. John Allen Paulos, professor of math at Temple University in Philadelphia, explained the distinction in this space last year.

A quick review will underscore the point: Woods is most likely of all his colleagues to win any tournament he enters. He wins nearly 30 per cent of those he plays; nobody else is near that winning percentage.

But he doesn't win 70 per cent of the time, so he's not likely to win any specific tournament. The field against Woods is always a better bet.

Woods has played 12 Masters and won four, or 33 per cent of them.

Does his winning percentage justify his being the 2-to-1 favourite? Again, no.

He has not won the Masters since 2005. That might make it appear Woods is destined to do so next week. But each Masters tournament is an independent event, like the flip of a coin.

For the sake of argument and debate as the Masters approaches, consider some golfers who are, in horse-racing parlance, overlays. Further, consider golfers who not only haven't won a Masters, but any major. Such a golfer surely can't win, can he?

Yes, he can.

Mike Weir of Bright's Grove, Ont., won in 2003, Zach Johnson in 2007, and Trevor Immelman last year. Each made the Masters his first major.

Yes, they did. And someone might do so again next week.

Start with Sean O'Hair, who led Woods by five shots before the final round last Sunday at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Woods made another one of "those" putts that have become his trademark on the last green to win.

But O'Hair is a player. He's no dog. He's a horse. (Dog lovers, please forgive the reference, but sports people talk like this.)

O'Hair could cross the finish line on top in a major, as early as next week. O'Hair is listed at 55 to 1 for the 2009 Masters.

Paul Casey is another long shot who shouldn't be such a long shot. The 31-year old Englishman lost to Geoff Ogilvy in this year's Accenture Match Play Championship. He tied for sixth in the 2004 Masters, for 10th in 2007, and for 11th last year after a nasty 79 in the last round. Casey is 40 to 1.

And we haven't even mentioned Stephen Ames of Calgary, an 80-to-1 outsider. Ames won the 2006 Players Championship, the next best thing to a major.

Probability and history say O'Hair, Casey, Ames or somebody else, but not Woods, will win next week.

You can't argue against logic and history, can you?

Yes, you can, you say.

Go right ahead. But consider yourself warned.


And the answer: “C) Jack Nicklaus (1962 to 1978) and Arnold Palmer (1955 to 1971)”